Al-Hazm 1–4 Al Khaleej Saihat: Result & Stats

Al-Hazm

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Al Khaleej Saihat

F. Martins 38'

G. Masouras 75', 45'

P. Fernandes 58' (pen)

K. Fortounis 8'

11/6/2025

Pro League · Round 8Al-Hazem Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Al-Hazm45%

×Draw23%

Al Khaleej Saihat32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-HazmExpected goals in this matchAl Khaleej Saihat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.47

Al-Hazm

1.77

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.47

Al-Hazm creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.79

creates per match

1.37

1.57

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Al-Hazm

1.79

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.37

allows per match

Al-Hazm

1.57

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.76

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

Al-Hazm-0.29scores less

Al Khaleej Saihat+0.43scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hazm ↓

Al Khaleej Saihat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Al-Hazm or draw

68%

Al-Hazm or Al Khaleej Saihat

77%

Draw or Al Khaleej Saihat

55%

Winning margin

Al-Hazm wins by 2+

24%

Al Khaleej Saihat wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Al-Hazm 1+ goals

83%

Al-Hazm 2+ goals

53%

Al-Hazm 3+ goals

26%

Al Khaleej Saihat 1+ goals

77%

Al Khaleej Saihat 2+ goals

43%

Al Khaleej Saihat 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Al-Hazm (draw refunded)

58%

Al Khaleej Saihat (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hazm at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.57 · 6 matches

Al Khaleej Saihat away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.76 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hazm attack 1.79 + Al Khaleej Saihat defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.77

Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.37 + Al-Hazm defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al-Hazm scores more

45%

level

23%

Al Khaleej Saihat scores more

32%

Al-Hazm at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al-Hazm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Sayoud

Al-Hazm · M

8.3

Match Events

8'

K. Fortounis↳ J. King

16'

Saeed Al Hamsal

20'

S. Al Amri← J. King

38'

F. Martins↳ A. Sayoud

41'

44'

44'

45'

45'

G. Masouras↳ K. Fortounis

54'

Abdelmounaim Boutouil

58'

P. FernandesPenalty

59'

Paolo Fernandes

59'

Paolo Fernandes

61'

S. Al Rashid← A. Al Harbi

61'

A. Al Shanqiti← A. Boutouil

61'

A. Al Harajin← E. Mokwana

65'

Nawaf Al-Habashi

75'

G. Masouras↳ S. Al Hamsal

76'

M. Carvalho← B. Al Sayyali

76'

M. Hamzi← M. Kanabah

86'

A. Al Hafith← G. Masouras

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-HazmAl

Overview

56%Possession44%

21Total Shots13

1.28Expected Goals (xG)2.07

6Corners3

14Fouls9

Shots

21Total Shots13

6On Target4

10Off Target5

5Blocked4

9Inside Box10

12Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

469Total Passes380

413Accurate Passes314

88%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls9

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1