Al-Hazm 1–0 Al Khaleej Saihat: Result & Stats

Al-Hazm

FT

1 – 0

Al Khaleej Saihat

A. Alharthi 90+3'

2/22/2021

Division 1 · Round 22Ar-Rass Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Al-Hazm49%

×Draw26%

Al Khaleej Saihat25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-HazmExpected goals in this matchAl Khaleej Saihat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.00

Al-Hazm

1.50

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.00

Al-Hazm creates 50% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 57 away

1.89

creates per match

1.25

0.75

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Al-Hazm

1.89

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.25

allows per match

Al-Hazm

0.75

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Hazm+0.00on par

Al Khaleej Saihat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hazm ↓

Al Khaleej Saihat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Al-Hazm or draw

75%

Al-Hazm or Al Khaleej Saihat

74%

Draw or Al Khaleej Saihat

51%

Winning margin

Al-Hazm wins by 2+

25%

Al Khaleej Saihat wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al-Hazm 1+ goals

78%

Al-Hazm 2+ goals

44%

Al-Hazm 3+ goals

19%

Al Khaleej Saihat 1+ goals

63%

Al Khaleej Saihat 2+ goals

26%

Al Khaleej Saihat 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al-Hazm (draw refunded)

66%

Al Khaleej Saihat (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hazm at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.75 · 55 matches

Al Khaleej Saihat away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.12 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hazm attack 1.89 + Al Khaleej Saihat defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.50

Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.25 + Al-Hazm defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al-Hazm scores more

49%

level

26%

Al Khaleej Saihat scores more

25%

Al-Hazm at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al-Hazm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+3'

A. Alharthi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff