Al-Hazm 1–1 Al Khaleej Saihat: Result & Stats

Al-Hazm

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Al Khaleej Saihat

2/24/2024

Pro League · Round 21Ar-Rass Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Al-Hazm35%

×Draw25%

Al Khaleej Saihat40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-HazmExpected goals in this matchAl Khaleej Saihat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.49

Al-Hazm

1.39

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 66 away

1.19

creates per match

1.11

1.86

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Al-Hazm

1.19

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.11

allows per match

Al-Hazm

1.86

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Hazm+0.00on par

Al Khaleej Saihat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hazm ↓

Al Khaleej Saihat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Al-Hazm or draw

60%

Al-Hazm or Al Khaleej Saihat

75%

Draw or Al Khaleej Saihat

65%

Winning margin

Al-Hazm wins by 2+

16%

Al Khaleej Saihat wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Al-Hazm 1+ goals

75%

Al-Hazm 2+ goals

40%

Al-Hazm 3+ goals

16%

Al Khaleej Saihat 1+ goals

77%

Al Khaleej Saihat 2+ goals

44%

Al Khaleej Saihat 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Al-Hazm (draw refunded)

47%

Al Khaleej Saihat (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hazm at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.86 · 79 matches

Al Khaleej Saihat away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hazm attack 1.19 + Al Khaleej Saihat defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.39

Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.11 + Al-Hazm defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al-Hazm scores more

35%

level

25%

Al Khaleej Saihat scores more

40%

Al Khaleej Saihat at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Khaleej Saihat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff