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Al Fallah vs Al-Ahly Merowe — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Fallah
Al Fallah
FT
0 – 2
Al-Ahly Merowe
Al-Ahly Merowe
3/10/2020Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 25Stade Al-Amal Atbara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Al Fallah44%
×Draw30%
Al-Ahly Merowe26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Fallah
1.21
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.86

Al Fallah creates 41% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 74 away

creates per match

Al Fallah
1.07
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.70

allows per match

Al Fallah
1.02
Al-Ahly Merowe
1.35

finishing

Al Fallah+0.00on par
Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Fallah ↓

Al-Ahly Merowe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Fallah or draw
74%
Al Fallah or Al-Ahly Merowe
70%
Draw or Al-Ahly Merowe
56%

Winning margin

Al Fallah wins by 2+
19%
Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Fallah 1+ goals
70%
Al Fallah 2+ goals
34%
Al Fallah 3+ goals
12%
Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals
58%
Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals
21%
Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Fallah (draw refunded)
63%
Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Fallah at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.02 · 41 matches

Al-Ahly Merowe away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.35 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Fallah attack 1.07 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.70 + Al Fallah defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Fallah scores more
44%
level
30%
Al-Ahly Merowe scores more
26%

Al Fallah at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Fallah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Fallah 0–2 Al-Ahly Merowe

Al-Ahly Merowe beat Al Fallah 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on March 10, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Al-Amal Atbara in Atbara.