Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Fallah vs Al-Ahly Merowe — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Fallah
Al Fallah
FT
1 – 0
Al-Ahly Merowe
Al-Ahly Merowe
2/13/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al Fallah29%
×Draw36%
Al-Ahly Merowe35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Fallah
0.71
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.81

Al-Ahly Merowe creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

creates per match

Al Fallah
0.67
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.63

allows per match

Al Fallah
1.00
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.75

finishing

Al Fallah+0.00on par
Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Fallah ↓

Al-Ahly Merowe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–118%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–14%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Al Fallah or draw
65%
Al Fallah or Al-Ahly Merowe
64%
Draw or Al-Ahly Merowe
71%

Winning margin

Al Fallah wins by 2+
8%
Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Fallah 1+ goals
51%
Al Fallah 2+ goals
16%
Al Fallah 3+ goals
4%
Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals
56%
Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals
19%
Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Fallah (draw refunded)
45%
Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Fallah at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Al-Ahly Merowe away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Fallah attack 0.67 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.63 + Al Fallah defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Al Fallah scores more
29%
level
36%
Al-Ahly Merowe scores more
35%

Al-Ahly Merowe at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Al-Ahly Merowe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Fallah vs Al-Ahly Merowe

Al Fallah beat Al-Ahly Merowe 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 13, 2026.