Al-Ahly Merowe 0–1 Al Fallah: Result & Stats

Al-Ahly Merowe

FT

0 – 1

Al Fallah

1/22/2026

Sudani Premier League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al-Ahly Merowe42%

×Draw33%

Al Fallah25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahly MeroweExpected goals in this matchAl Fallah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.71

Al-Ahly Merowe

1.03

Al Fallah

0.71

Al-Ahly Merowe creates 45% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 19 away

0.64

creates per match

0.42

1.00

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.64

Al Fallah

0.42

allows per match

Al-Ahly Merowe

1.00

Al Fallah

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Al Fallah+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahly Merowe ↓

Al Fallah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Al-Ahly Merowe or draw

75%

Al-Ahly Merowe or Al Fallah

67%

Draw or Al Fallah

58%

Winning margin

Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+

17%

Al Fallah wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals

64%

Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals

28%

Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals

9%

Al Fallah 1+ goals

51%

Al Fallah 2+ goals

16%

Al Fallah 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)

63%

Al Fallah (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahly Merowe at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Al Fallah away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.64 + Al Fallah defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.03

Al Fallah attack 0.42 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al-Ahly Merowe scores more

42%

level

33%

Al Fallah scores more

25%

Al-Ahly Merowe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al-Ahly Merowe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff