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Al Baten vs Al-Qadisiyah FC — Division 1 2018

Al Baten
Al Baten
FT
1 – 0
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC
K. Aldawsari 40' (OG)
1/11/2020Division 1Division 1 · Round 17Al-Batin FC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Al Baten35%
×Draw28%
Al-Qadisiyah FC38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Baten
1.17
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 69 away

creates per match

Al Baten
1.40
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.28

allows per match

Al Baten
1.20
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0.93

finishing

Al Baten+0.00on par
Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Baten ↓

Al-Qadisiyah FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Baten or draw
62%
Al Baten or Al-Qadisiyah FC
72%
Draw or Al-Qadisiyah FC
65%

Winning margin

Al Baten wins by 2+
14%
Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Baten 1+ goals
69%
Al Baten 2+ goals
33%
Al Baten 3+ goals
11%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals
71%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals
35%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al Baten (draw refunded)
48%
Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Baten at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 70 matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.93 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Baten attack 1.40 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.17

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.28 + Al Baten defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Baten scores more
35%
level
28%
Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more
38%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
K. AldawsariOwn goal
90'
H. Al Amri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Baten 1–0 Al-Qadisiyah FC

Al Baten beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-0 in Division 1 on January 11, 2020.

Goals: K. Aldawsari (40' o.g.).

The match was played at Al-Batin FC Stadium in Hafar Al-Batin.