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Al-Ahly Merowe vs Al Fallah — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al-Ahly Merowe
Al-Ahly Merowe
FT
1 – 1
Al Fallah
Al Fallah
11/6/2019Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 9Karima Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Al-Ahly Merowe45%
×Draw31%
Al Fallah24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ahly Merowe
1.15
Al Fallah
0.74

Al-Ahly Merowe creates 55% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 40 away

creates per match

Al-Ahly Merowe
0.94
Al Fallah
0.55

allows per match

Al-Ahly Merowe
0.93
Al Fallah
1.35

finishing

Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par
Al Fallah+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahly Merowe ↓

Al Fallah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Al-Ahly Merowe or draw
76%
Al-Ahly Merowe or Al Fallah
69%
Draw or Al Fallah
55%

Winning margin

Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+
20%
Al Fallah wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals
68%
Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals
32%
Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals
11%
Al Fallah 1+ goals
52%
Al Fallah 2+ goals
17%
Al Fallah 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)
66%
Al Fallah (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahly Merowe at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.93 · 82 matches

Al Fallah away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.35 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.94 + Al Fallah defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.15

Al Fallah attack 0.55 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al-Ahly Merowe scores more
45%
level
31%
Al Fallah scores more
24%

Al-Ahly Merowe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al-Ahly Merowe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Ahly Merowe vs Al Fallah

Al-Ahly Merowe and Al Fallah drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on November 6, 2019.

The match was played at Karima Stadium in Karima.