Air Force Central FC 2–1 Rayong FC: Result & Stats

Air Force Central FC

FT

2 – 1

Rayong FC

8/10/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 25Thupatemee Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Air Force Central FC37%

×Draw25%

Rayong FC37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Air Force Central FCExpected goals in this matchRayong FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

Air Force Central FC

1.40

Rayong FC

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 71 away

1.35

creates per match

1.45

1.35

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Air Force Central FC

1.35

Rayong FC

1.45

allows per match

Air Force Central FC

1.35

Rayong FC

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Air Force Central FC+0.00on par

Rayong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Air Force Central FC ↓

Rayong FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Air Force Central FC or draw

63%

Air Force Central FC or Rayong FC

75%

Draw or Rayong FC

63%

Winning margin

Air Force Central FC wins by 2+

17%

Rayong FC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Air Force Central FC 1+ goals

75%

Air Force Central FC 2+ goals

41%

Air Force Central FC 3+ goals

17%

Rayong FC 1+ goals

75%

Rayong FC 2+ goals

41%

Rayong FC 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Air Force Central FC (draw refunded)

50%

Rayong FC (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Air Force Central FC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Rayong FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.44 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Air Force Central FC attack 1.35 + Rayong FC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

Rayong FC attack 1.45 + Air Force Central FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Air Force Central FC scores more

37%

level

25%

Rayong FC scores more

37%

Air Force Central FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Air Force Central FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff