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Rayong FC vs Air Force Central FC — Thai League 2 2018

Rayong FC
Rayong FC
FT
2 – 2
Air Force Central FC
Air Force Central FC
4/6/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 9Rayong Stadium (Rayong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rayong FC55%
×Draw24%
Air Force Central FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayong FC
1.73
Air Force Central FC
0.98

Rayong FC creates 77% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 17 away

creates per match

Rayong FC
1.57
Air Force Central FC
1.00

allows per match

Rayong FC
0.96
Air Force Central FC
1.88

finishing

Rayong FC+0.00on par
Air Force Central FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayong FC ↓

Air Force Central FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rayong FC or draw
79%
Rayong FC or Air Force Central FC
76%
Draw or Air Force Central FC
45%

Winning margin

Rayong FC wins by 2+
30%
Air Force Central FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rayong FC 1+ goals
82%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
52%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
25%
Air Force Central FC 1+ goals
62%
Air Force Central FC 2+ goals
26%
Air Force Central FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rayong FC (draw refunded)
72%
Air Force Central FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayong FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

Air Force Central FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayong FC attack 1.57 + Air Force Central FC defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73

Air Force Central FC attack 1.00 + Rayong FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Rayong FC scores more
55%
level
24%
Air Force Central FC scores more
21%

Rayong FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rayong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayong FC vs Air Force Central FC

Rayong FC and Air Force Central FC drew 2-2 in Thai League 2 on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at Rayong Stadium (Rayong).