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Air Force Central FC vs Rayong FC — Thai League 2 2018

Air Force Central FC
Air Force Central FC
FT
2 – 1
Rayong FC
Rayong FC
4/9/2017Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 10Thupatemee Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Air Force Central FC41%
×Draw25%
Rayong FC34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Air Force Central FC
1.52
Rayong FC
1.36

Air Force Central FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 74 away

creates per match

Air Force Central FC
1.55
Rayong FC
1.43

allows per match

Air Force Central FC
1.30
Rayong FC
1.49

finishing

Air Force Central FC+0.00on par
Rayong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Air Force Central FC ↓

Rayong FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Air Force Central FC or draw
66%
Air Force Central FC or Rayong FC
75%
Draw or Rayong FC
59%

Winning margin

Air Force Central FC wins by 2+
20%
Rayong FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Air Force Central FC 1+ goals
78%
Air Force Central FC 2+ goals
45%
Air Force Central FC 3+ goals
20%
Rayong FC 1+ goals
74%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
39%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Air Force Central FC (draw refunded)
55%
Rayong FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Air Force Central FC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

Rayong FC away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.49 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Air Force Central FC attack 1.55 + Rayong FC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

Rayong FC attack 1.43 + Air Force Central FC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Air Force Central FC scores more
41%
level
25%
Rayong FC scores more
34%

Air Force Central FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Air Force Central FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Air Force Central FC 2–1 Rayong FC

Air Force Central FC beat Rayong FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on April 9, 2017.

The match was played at Thupatemee Stadium in Bangkok.