AIK Stockholm 3–1 IFK Varnamo: Result & Stats

AIK Stockholm

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

IFK Varnamo

11/12/2023

Allsvenskan · Round 30Friends Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

AIK Stockholm52%

×Draw24%

IFK Varnamo25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AIK StockholmExpected goals in this matchIFK Varnamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.13

AIK Stockholm

1.74

IFK Varnamo

1.13

AIK Stockholm creates 54% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

1.72

creates per match

1.22

1.03

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

AIK Stockholm

1.72

IFK Varnamo

1.22

allows per match

AIK Stockholm

1.03

IFK Varnamo

1.76

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

AIK Stockholm-0.39scores less

IFK Varnamo+0.49scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

IFK Varnamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw

75%

AIK Stockholm or IFK Varnamo

76%

Draw or IFK Varnamo

48%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

28%

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

82%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

52%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

25%

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

68%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

31%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

68%

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.03 · 12 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.76 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 1.72 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.74

IFK Varnamo attack 1.22 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more

52%

level

24%

IFK Varnamo scores more

25%

AIK Stockholm at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff