VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund — Bundesliga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 21+ matches
VfB Stuttgart42%
Borussia Dortmund33%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
VfB Stuttgart creates 15% more chances
Season form · 21 home / 28 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
VfB Stuttgart ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
VfB Stuttgart at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.25 · 21 matches
Borussia Dortmund away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.26 · 28 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
VfB Stuttgart attack 1.87 + Borussia Dortmund defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.56
Borussia Dortmund attack 1.48 + VfB Stuttgart defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.36
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
VfB Stuttgart at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "VfB Stuttgart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Bayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund
RB LeipzigVfB Stuttgart
1899 Hoffenheim
Bayer Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
Eintracht Frankfurt
FC Augsburg
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Hamburger SV
1. FC Köln
Werder Bremen
FC Schalke 04
SV Elversberg
SC Paderborn 07If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
VfB Stuttgart host Borussia Dortmund on Saturday, 20 October 2018 at 13:30. The match is part of the Bundesliga 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund beat VfB Stuttgart 4-0 in Bundesliga on October 20, 2018.
Goals: J. Sancho (3'), M. Reus (23'), Paco Alcácer (25'), M. Philipp (85').
VfB Stuttgart controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 12.
The match was played at Mercedes-Benz Arena in Stuttgart.