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AFC Wimbledon vs Lincoln — League One 2018

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Lincoln
Lincoln
O. Palmer 31'
T. Hopper 83'
A. Edun 8'
1/2/2021League OneLeague One · Round 22Plough Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

AFC Wimbledon29%
×Draw25%
Lincoln45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.17
Lincoln
1.52

Lincoln creates 30% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.22
Lincoln
1.38

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.66
Lincoln
1.13

finishing

AFC Wimbledon-0.22scores less
Lincoln+0.25scores more

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
55%
AFC Wimbledon or Lincoln
75%
Draw or Lincoln
71%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
12%
Lincoln wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
69%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
33%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
11%
Lincoln 1+ goals
78%
Lincoln 2+ goals
45%
Lincoln 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
39%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.66 · 11 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.22 + Lincoln defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Lincoln attack 1.38 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
29%
level
25%
Lincoln scores more
45%

Lincoln at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
T. HopperLincolnLincoln · F
8.0

Match Events

8'
A. Edun↳ T. Hopper
28'
Brennan Johnson
31'
O. Palmer↳ S. McLoughlin
38'
Alex Woodyard
68'
Jorge Grant
68'
E. Chislett← J. Pigott
83'
T. Hopper↳ J. Grant
85'
A. Roscrow← P. Kalambayi
90+2'
R. Howarth← B. Johnson
90+1'
M. Melbourne← A. Edun

Possession

41%AFC

Shots

12AFC

Pass accuracy

49%AFC

Statistics

AFCLincoln
Overview
41%Possession59%
12Total Shots8
3Corners7
9Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots8
3On Target4
7Off Target3
2Blocked1
8Inside Box7
4Outside Box1
Passing
41%Possession59%
303Total Passes432
202Accurate Passes304
67%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

League One: AFC Wimbledon 1–2 Lincoln

Lincoln beat AFC Wimbledon 2-1 in League One on January 2, 2021.

Goals: A. Edun (8'), O. Palmer (31'), T. Hopper (83').

Lincoln controlled possession (59%) and registered 8 shots to 12.

The match was played at Plough Lane in London.