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AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster — League One 2018

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Doncaster
Doncaster
3/9/2019League OneLeague One · Round 36Kingsmeadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

AFC Wimbledon39%
×Draw26%
Doncaster35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.38
Doncaster
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 108 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Doncaster
1.13

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.45
Doncaster
1.61

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par
Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Doncaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
65%
AFC Wimbledon or Doncaster
74%
Draw or Doncaster
61%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
18%
Doncaster wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
75%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
40%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
16%
Doncaster 1+ goals
72%
Doncaster 2+ goals
37%
Doncaster 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
53%
Doncaster (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.15 + Doncaster defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.38

Doncaster attack 1.13 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
39%
level
26%
Doncaster scores more
35%

AFC Wimbledon at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: AFC Wimbledon 2–0 Doncaster

AFC Wimbledon beat Doncaster 2-0 in League One on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Kingsmeadow in London.