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ADT vs Universitario — Primera División 2026

ADT
ADT
Preview
18:15
Universitario
Universitario
7/18/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 1
Big match
41%
ADT
model favours
41%28%31%

Universitario score first in only 28% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

ADT41%
×Draw28%
Universitario31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADT
1.25
Universitario
1.06

ADT creates 18% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 33 away

creates per match

ADT
1.61
Universitario
1.12

allows per match

ADT
1.00
Universitario
0.88

finishing

ADT+0.00on par
Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADT ↓

Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

ADT or draw
69%
ADT or Universitario
72%
Draw or Universitario
59%

Winning margin

ADT wins by 2+
18%
Universitario wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

ADT 1+ goals
71%
ADT 2+ goals
36%
ADT 3+ goals
13%
Universitario 1+ goals
65%
Universitario 2+ goals
29%
Universitario 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

ADT (draw refunded)
56%
Universitario (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADT at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

Universitario away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.88 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADT attack 1.61 + Universitario defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.25

Universitario attack 1.12 + ADT defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

ADT scores more
41%
level
28%
Universitario scores more
31%

ADT at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "ADT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 72% of Universitario’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Universitario have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Both teams score in only 30% of ADT’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
ADT
Balanced
Universitario
Attack-heavy
52%Possession51%
79%Pass accuracy78%
13.6Shots15.4
1.39xGBiggest gap1.61
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ADTUniversitario

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
ADT
0
Draws
4
Universitario
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 40%
0–21–20–51–22–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
ADT
WLWDL
Universitario
WDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ADT vs Universitario — Match Preview

ADT face Universitario on July 18, 2026 in this Primera División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.