Accrington ST vs Port Vale: Preview & Prediction

Accrington ST

Preview

15:00

Port Vale

2/27/2027

League Two · Round 33The Wham Stadium

Big match

38%

Port Vale

model favours

35%27%38%

Port Vale score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

56%

under 2.5 goals

50%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Accrington ST35%

×Draw27%

Port Vale38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.25

Accrington ST

1.20

Port Vale

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 27 away

1.14

creates per match

1.30

1.21

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Accrington ST

1.14

Port Vale

1.30

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.21

Port Vale

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

62%

Accrington ST or Port Vale

73%

Draw or Port Vale

65%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

15%

Port Vale wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

70%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

34%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

12%

Port Vale 1+ goals

71%

Port Vale 2+ goals

36%

Port Vale 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

48%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.14 + Port Vale defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.20

Port Vale attack 1.30 + Accrington ST defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Accrington ST scores more

35%

level

27%

Port Vale scores more

38%

Port Vale at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in only 18% of Port Vale’s matches
Accrington ST outscore their xG (0.9 vs 0.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Accrington ST

Direct / counter-attacking

Port Vale

Balanced

41%PossessionBiggest gap50%

61%Pass accuracy66%

11.2Shots12.4

0.54xG—

Accrington STPort Vale

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1

Accrington ST

2

Draws

2

Port Vale

Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 60%

0–21–22–23–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

ST

DLDDL

Vale

WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Accrington ST face Port Vale (League Two)

League Two returns with Accrington ST hosting Port Vale. Match starts February 27, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Accrington ST host Port Vale at The Wham Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Accrington ST vs Port Vale — League Two 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Accrington ST face Port Vale (League Two)