Accrington ST vs Chesterfield: Preview & Prediction

Accrington ST

Preview

15:00

Chesterfield

12/19/2026

League Two · Round 20The Wham Stadium

39%

Accrington ST

model favours

39%27%33%

Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

56%

under 2.5 goals

49%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Accrington ST39%

×Draw27%

Chesterfield33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchChesterfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.15

Accrington ST

1.27

Chesterfield

1.15

Accrington ST creates 10% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

0.98

creates per match

1.22

1.07

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Accrington ST

0.98

Chesterfield

1.22

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.07

Chesterfield

1.57

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.35scores more

Chesterfield+0.09on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Chesterfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

67%

Accrington ST or Chesterfield

73%

Draw or Chesterfield

61%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

17%

Chesterfield wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

72%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

36%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

14%

Chesterfield 1+ goals

68%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

32%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

54%

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.07 · 9 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.57 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.98 + Chesterfield defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.27

Chesterfield attack 1.22 + Accrington ST defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Accrington ST scores more

39%

level

27%

Chesterfield scores more

33%

Accrington ST at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.2 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Accrington ST

Balanced

Chesterfield

Possession-dominant

47%Possession60%

62%Pass accuracy78%

11.5Shots12.3

0.89xGBiggest gap1.38

Accrington STChesterfield

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

1

Accrington ST

1

Draws

2

Chesterfield

Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 25%

0–13–30–13–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

ST

WDLDD

Chesterfield

LDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Accrington ST face Chesterfield (League Two)

League Two returns with Accrington ST hosting Chesterfield. Match starts December 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Accrington ST host Chesterfield at The Wham Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Accrington ST vs Chesterfield — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Accrington ST face Chesterfield (League Two)