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Accrington ST vs Barnet — League Two 2018

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
Preview
15:00
Barnet
Barnet
2/20/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 32The Wham Stadium
Big match
37%
Barnet
model favours
36%27%37%

Barnet are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Accrington ST36%
×Draw27%
Barnet37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.21
Barnet
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
0.98
Barnet
1.40

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.07
Barnet
1.43

finishing

Accrington ST+0.35scores more
Barnet-0.15scores less

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Barnet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
63%
Accrington ST or Barnet
73%
Draw or Barnet
64%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
15%
Barnet wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
70%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
34%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
12%
Barnet 1+ goals
71%
Barnet 2+ goals
35%
Barnet 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
49%
Barnet (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.07 · 9 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.43 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.98 + Barnet defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Barnet attack 1.40 + Accrington ST defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Accrington ST scores more
36%
level
27%
Barnet scores more
37%

Barnet at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of Barnet’s matches
  • Barnet score first in only 30% of matches
  • Barnet have scored in 7 games running
  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.9 expected)
  • 70% of Barnet’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Accrington ST
Balanced
Barnet
Possession-dominant
47%Possession55%
62%Pass accuracy68%
11.4Shots13.6
0.89xGBiggest gap1.72
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Accrington STBarnet

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Accrington ST
3
Draws
4
Barnet
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 50%
0–10–21–01–14–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
ST
WDLDD
Barnet
DDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Accrington ST face Barnet (League Two)

League Two returns with Accrington ST hosting Barnet. Match starts February 20, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Accrington ST host Barnet at The Wham Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.