AC Oulu 2–1 FF Jaro: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

AC Oulu

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FF Jaro

J. Aallikko 86'

A. Heikkilä 40'

S. Kähkönen 83'

8/1/2020

Ykkönen · Round 4Raatin stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

AC Oulu44%

×Draw26%

FF Jaro29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC OuluExpected goals in this matchFF Jaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.12

AC Oulu

1.44

FF Jaro

1.12

AC Oulu creates 29% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 64 away

1.45

creates per match

1.38

0.86

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

AC Oulu

1.45

FF Jaro

1.38

allows per match

AC Oulu

0.86

FF Jaro

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AC Oulu+0.00on par

FF Jaro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Oulu ↓

FF Jaro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

AC Oulu or draw

71%

AC Oulu or FF Jaro

74%

Draw or FF Jaro

56%

Winning margin

AC Oulu wins by 2+

21%

FF Jaro wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

AC Oulu 1+ goals

76%

AC Oulu 2+ goals

42%

AC Oulu 3+ goals

18%

FF Jaro 1+ goals

67%

FF Jaro 2+ goals

31%

FF Jaro 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

AC Oulu (draw refunded)

60%

FF Jaro (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Oulu at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

FF Jaro away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.44 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Oulu attack 1.45 + FF Jaro defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

FF Jaro attack 1.38 + AC Oulu defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AC Oulu scores more

44%

level

26%

FF Jaro scores more

29%

AC Oulu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AC Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

A. Heikkilä

46'

D. Rantanen← S. Leppälä

46'

J. Aallikko← S. Karjalainen

66'

W. Inalien← Topi Järvinen

66'

M. Wargh← J. Ihalainen

72'

83'

86'

86'

87'

J. Kallinen← N. Jokelainen

88'

A. Bjonbäck← J. Mabinda

90+2'

Alexander Jibrin← A. Heikkilä

AC

FF

25

Öhberg

35

Amuzie

28

▼

Ihalainen

30

▼

Mabinda

15

Kronholm

16

▼

22

24

21

29

10

⚽

1

11

5

16

19

▼

Leppälä

22

Hertsi

21

⚽

▼

Heikkilä

6

Nurmela

3

Koskela

37

▼

Karjalain

14

▼

Jokelaine

Manager: J. Ahola

46'▲D. Rantanen←▼S. Leppälä

46'▲J. Aallikko←▼S. Karjalainen

87'▲J. Kallinen←▼N. Jokelainen

90+2'▲Alexander Jibrin←▼A. Heikkilä

AC Oulu substitutes

7Rantanen8Aallikko15Kallinen24Jibrin12Särkelä18Mäkelä33Heinolainen

Manager: N. Käcko

66'▲W. Inalien←▼Topi Järvinen

66'▲M. Wargh←▼J. Ihalainen

88'▲A. Bjonbäck←▼J. Mabinda

FF Jaro substitutes

9Inalien26Wargh27Bjonbäck23Östman8Ramsay36Valtonen

Match Recap: AC Oulu vs FF Jaro

AC Oulu beat FF Jaro 2-1 in Ykkönen on August 1, 2020.

Goals: A. Heikkilä (40'), S. Kähkönen (83'), J. Aallikko (86').

The match was played at Raatin stadion in Oulu.

AC Oulu vs FF Jaro — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: AC Oulu vs FF Jaro