ABC 1–1 Sampaio Correa: Result & Stats | Serie C

ABC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sampaio Correa

Jefinho 68'

Roney 61'

8/17/2019

Serie C · Round 17Estádio Maria Lamas Farache (Natal, Rio Grande do Norte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

ABC45%

×Draw28%

Sampaio Correa27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchSampaio Correa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.94

ABC

1.29

Sampaio Correa

0.94

ABC creates 37% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 21 away

1.35

creates per match

0.81

1.06

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

ABC

1.35

Sampaio Correa

0.81

allows per match

ABC

1.06

Sampaio Correa

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Sampaio Correa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

ABC or draw

73%

ABC or Sampaio Correa

72%

Draw or Sampaio Correa

55%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

20%

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

72%

ABC 2+ goals

37%

ABC 3+ goals

14%

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals

61%

Sampaio Correa 2+ goals

24%

Sampaio Correa 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

62%

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Sampaio Correa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 1.35 + Sampaio Correa defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sampaio Correa attack 0.81 + ABC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ABC scores more

45%

level

28%

Sampaio Correa scores more

27%

ABC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

Jefinho← Xavier

54'

Dione← Anderson Rosa

61'

Roney

68'

Eloir← Diones

68'

Jefinho

71'

João Victor← Romano

72'

Ivan← Wenderson

83'

Ricardo Capanema← Diguinho

ABC

Sampaio

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Roberto Fernandes

50'▲Jefinho←▼Xavier

54'▲Dione←▼Anderson Rosa

72'▲Ivan←▼Wenderson

ABC substitutes

JefinhoDioneIvanAdrianPedraDidaEvandroRichardsonSauloTitoWandersonYan

Manager: João Brigatti

68'▲Eloir←▼Diones

71'▲João Victor←▼Romano

83'▲Ricardo Capanema←▼Diguinho

Sampaio Correa substitutes

EloirVictorCapanemaCarvalhoPauloThiagoWelder