Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

ABC vs Luverdense — Serie D 2026

ABC
ABC
Preview
20:00
Luverdense
Luverdense
7/26/2026Serie DSerie D · Round of 16
Big match
69%
ABC
model favours
69%21%10%

Luverdense are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
36%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

ABC69%
×Draw21%
Luverdense10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ABC
1.88
Luverdense
0.55

ABC creates 242% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 19 away

creates per match

ABC
2.28
Luverdense
0.53

allows per match

ABC
0.56
Luverdense
1.47

finishing

ABC+0.00on par
Luverdense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Luverdense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

ABC or draw
90%
ABC or Luverdense
79%
Draw or Luverdense
31%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+
43%
Luverdense wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals
85%
ABC 2+ goals
56%
ABC 3+ goals
29%
Luverdense 1+ goals
42%
Luverdense 2+ goals
11%
Luverdense 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)
87%
Luverdense (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.56 · 25 matches

Luverdense away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 2.28 + Luverdense defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.88

Luverdense attack 0.53 + ABC defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

ABC scores more
69%
level
21%
Luverdense scores more
10%

ABC at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 85% of Luverdense’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Luverdense score first in only 23% of matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — ABC 1 vs Luverdense 2

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
ABC
DWLDW
Luverdense
DDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ABC vs Luverdense — Match Preview

ABC face Luverdense on July 26, 2026 in this Serie D fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.