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ABC vs Guarani Campinas — Serie B 2026

ABC
ABC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guarani Campinas
Guarani Campinas
Lenon 80'
7/1/2017Serie BSerie B · Round 11Frasqueirão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

ABC35%
×Draw30%
Guarani Campinas35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ABC
1.02
Guarani Campinas
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 107 away

creates per match

ABC
0.70
Guarani Campinas
0.91

allows per match

ABC
1.13
Guarani Campinas
1.34

finishing

ABC+0.00on par
Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Guarani Campinas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

ABC or draw
65%
ABC or Guarani Campinas
70%
Draw or Guarani Campinas
65%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+
13%
Guarani Campinas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals
64%
ABC 2+ goals
27%
ABC 3+ goals
8%
Guarani Campinas 1+ goals
64%
Guarani Campinas 2+ goals
27%
Guarani Campinas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)
50%
Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 0.70, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

Guarani Campinas away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.34 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 0.70 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.02

Guarani Campinas attack 0.91 + ABC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

ABC scores more
35%
level
30%
Guarani Campinas scores more
35%

ABC at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
LenonGuarani CampinasGuarani Campinas · D
7.8

Match Events

46'
Zotti← Gegé
50'
Claudinho← Eliandro
64'
Cleiton
65'
E. Echeverría← Caio
67'
Luiz Fernando← Richarlyson
71'
Nando← Erivélton
75'
Felipe Guedes
80'
Lenon↳ Samu
82'
Juninho← Bruno Nazário
89'
Cleiton
89'
Cleiton

Possession

50%ABC

Shots

18ABC

Pass accuracy

50%ABC

Statistics

ABCGuarani
Overview
50%Possession50%
18Total Shots14
1Corners1
18Fouls12
Shots
18Total Shots14
3On Target5
12Off Target5
3Blocked4
4Inside Box9
14Outside Box5
Passing
50%Possession50%
375Total Passes381
279Accurate Passes282
74%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls12
3Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards0
0Offsides3

Match Recap: ABC vs Guarani Campinas

Guarani Campinas beat ABC 1-0 in Serie B on July 1, 2017.

Goals: Lenon (80').

ABC controlled possession (50%) and registered 18 shots to 14.

The match was played at Frasqueirão in Natal.