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ABC vs Guarani Campinas — Serie C 2018

ABC
ABC
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Guarani Campinas
Guarani Campinas
8/16/2025Serie CSerie C · Round 17Estadio Maria Lamas Farache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

ABC39%
×Draw27%
Guarani Campinas35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ABC
1.33
Guarani Campinas
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 19 away

creates per match

ABC
1.29
Guarani Campinas
1.42

allows per match

ABC
1.08
Guarani Campinas
1.37

finishing

ABC+0.00on par
Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Guarani Campinas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

ABC or draw
65%
ABC or Guarani Campinas
73%
Draw or Guarani Campinas
61%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+
17%
Guarani Campinas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals
74%
ABC 2+ goals
38%
ABC 3+ goals
15%
Guarani Campinas 1+ goals
71%
Guarani Campinas 2+ goals
36%
Guarani Campinas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)
53%
Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Guarani Campinas away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 1.29 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Guarani Campinas attack 1.42 + ABC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ABC scores more
39%
level
27%
Guarani Campinas scores more
35%

ABC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie C: ABC 3–4 Guarani Campinas

Guarani Campinas beat ABC 4-3 in Serie C on August 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Maria Lamas Farache in Natal.