ABC 0–1 Guarani Campinas: Result & Stats | Serie B

ABC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Guarani Campinas

7/20/2023

Serie B · Round 18Arena das Dunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

ABC36%

×Draw30%

Guarani Campinas34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchGuarani Campinas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.01

ABC

1.04

Guarani Campinas

1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 133 away

0.79

creates per match

0.86

1.16

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

ABC

0.79

Guarani Campinas

0.86

allows per match

ABC

1.16

Guarani Campinas

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Guarani Campinas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

ABC or draw

66%

ABC or Guarani Campinas

70%

Draw or Guarani Campinas

64%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

14%

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

65%

ABC 2+ goals

28%

ABC 3+ goals

9%

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

64%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

27%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

51%

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Guarani Campinas away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.28 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 0.79 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.04

Guarani Campinas attack 0.86 + ABC defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

ABC scores more

36%

level

30%

Guarani Campinas scores more

34%

ABC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff