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ABC vs Guarani Campinas — Serie C 2026

ABC
ABCadvanced
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Guarani Campinas
Guarani Campinas
Lúcio Flávio 72', 41'
Jones Carioca 58', 26'
10/16/2016Serie CSerie C · Semi-finalsEstádio Maria Lamas Farache (Natal, Rio Grande do Norte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

ABC42%
×Draw26%
Guarani Campinas32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ABC
1.44
Guarani Campinas
1.22

ABC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 21 away

creates per match

ABC
1.35
Guarani Campinas
1.38

allows per match

ABC
1.06
Guarani Campinas
1.52

finishing

ABC+0.00on par
Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Guarani Campinas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

ABC or draw
68%
ABC or Guarani Campinas
74%
Draw or Guarani Campinas
58%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+
20%
Guarani Campinas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals
76%
ABC 2+ goals
42%
ABC 3+ goals
18%
Guarani Campinas 1+ goals
70%
Guarani Campinas 2+ goals
34%
Guarani Campinas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)
57%
Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Guarani Campinas away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 1.35 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.44

Guarani Campinas attack 1.38 + ABC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ABC scores more
42%
level
26%
Guarani Campinas scores more
32%

ABC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
Jones Carioca
41'
Lúcio Flávio
58'
Jones Carioca
72'
Lúcio Flávio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie C: ABC 4–0 Guarani Campinas

ABC beat Guarani Campinas 4-0 in Serie C on October 16, 2016.

Goals: Jones Carioca (26', 58'), Lúcio Flávio (41', 72').

The match was played at Estádio Maria Lamas Farache (Natal, Rio Grande do Norte).