Aalesund 0–3 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Aalesund

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

ODD Ballklubb

M. Bakenga 84'

K. Egell-Johnsen 64'

O. Bjørtuft 45+2'

10/25/2020

Eliteserien · Round 22Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Aalesund52%

×Draw22%

ODD Ballklubb26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AalesundExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.35

Aalesund

1.98

ODD Ballklubb

1.35

Aalesund creates 47% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

1.73

creates per match

0.98

1.72

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Aalesund

1.73

ODD Ballklubb

0.98

allows per match

Aalesund

1.72

ODD Ballklubb

2.22

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Aalesund-0.44scores less

ODD Ballklubb+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Aalesund or draw

74%

Aalesund or ODD Ballklubb

78%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

48%

Winning margin

Aalesund wins by 2+

30%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Aalesund 1+ goals

86%

Aalesund 2+ goals

59%

Aalesund 3+ goals

31%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

74%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

39%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Aalesund (draw refunded)

67%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.72 · 14 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund attack 1.73 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.98

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.98 + Aalesund defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Aalesund scores more

52%

level

22%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

26%

Aalesund at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Aalesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

K. Egell-Johnsen

ODD Ballklubb · D

8.9

Match Events

10'

Vladimir Rodić

16'

P. Larsen← F. Carlsen

27'

John Kitolano

35'

Izunna Uzochukwu

45+2'

O. Bjørtuft

64'

K. Egell-Johnsen↳ J. Kitolano

67'

Sigurd Haugen

68'

T. Lauritsen← V. Rodić

79'

F. Nordkvelle← M. Kaasa

84'

M. Bakenga↳ K. Egell-Johnsen

85'

M. Karlsbakk← S. Nordli

85'

S. Sno← I. Määttä

85'

J. Grønner← B. Karamoko

86'

Kasper Jørgensen

86'

P. Bizoza← I. Uzochukwu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AalesundODD

Overview

39%Possession61%

3Total Shots18

2Corners1

20Fouls9

Shots

3Total Shots18

2On Target8

0Off Target2

1Blocked8

1Inside Box10

2Outside Box8

Passing

39%Possession61%

331Total Passes515

255Accurate Passes440

77%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

7Offsides0