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Zwettl vs Gaflenz — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Zwettl
Zwettl
CANC
15:30
Gaflenz
Gaflenz
6/7/2020Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 29Sportanlage Edelhof

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Zwettl50%
×Draw22%
Gaflenz28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zwettl
1.97
Gaflenz
1.43

Zwettl creates 38% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 7 away

creates per match

Zwettl
1.79
Gaflenz
1.29

allows per match

Zwettl
1.56
Gaflenz
2.14

finishing

Zwettl+0.00on par
Gaflenz+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zwettl ↓

Gaflenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Zwettl or draw
72%
Zwettl or Gaflenz
78%
Draw or Gaflenz
50%

Winning margin

Zwettl wins by 2+
29%
Gaflenz wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zwettl 1+ goals
86%
Zwettl 2+ goals
58%
Zwettl 3+ goals
31%
Gaflenz 1+ goals
76%
Gaflenz 2+ goals
42%
Gaflenz 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Zwettl (draw refunded)
64%
Gaflenz (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zwettl at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.56 · 85 matches

Gaflenz away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zwettl attack 1.79 + Gaflenz defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.97

Gaflenz attack 1.29 + Zwettl defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zwettl scores more
50%
level
22%
Gaflenz scores more
28%

Zwettl at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zwettl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Zwettl host Gaflenz

June 7, 2020: Zwettl take on Gaflenz in Landesliga - Niederosterreich. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Zwettl host Gaflenz at Sportanlage Edelhof.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.