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Gaflenz vs Zwettl — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Gaflenz
Gaflenz
FT
2 – 2
Zwettl
Zwettl
11/2/2019Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 14Sportzentrum Gaflenz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Gaflenz48%
×Draw22%
Zwettl30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gaflenz
1.93
Zwettl
1.48

Gaflenz creates 30% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 85 away

creates per match

Gaflenz
2.13
Zwettl
1.21

allows per match

Gaflenz
1.75
Zwettl
1.73

finishing

Gaflenz+0.00on par
Zwettl+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaflenz ↓

Zwettl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Gaflenz or draw
70%
Gaflenz or Zwettl
78%
Draw or Zwettl
52%

Winning margin

Gaflenz wins by 2+
27%
Zwettl wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gaflenz 1+ goals
85%
Gaflenz 2+ goals
57%
Gaflenz 3+ goals
30%
Zwettl 1+ goals
77%
Zwettl 2+ goals
43%
Zwettl 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Gaflenz (draw refunded)
62%
Zwettl (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaflenz at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Zwettl away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.73 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaflenz attack 2.13 + Zwettl defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.93

Zwettl attack 1.21 + Gaflenz defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gaflenz scores more
48%
level
22%
Zwettl scores more
30%

Gaflenz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gaflenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gaflenz vs Zwettl

Gaflenz and Zwettl drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Gaflenz in Gaflenz.