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Zvyahel vs Nyva Vinnytsya — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Zvyahel
Zvyahel
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nyva Vinnytsya
Nyva Vinnytsya
4/29/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 14Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Zvyahel52%
×Draw25%
Nyva Vinnytsya23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvyahel
1.61
Nyva Vinnytsya
0.97

Zvyahel creates 66% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 76 away

creates per match

Zvyahel
1.76
Nyva Vinnytsya
1.32

allows per match

Zvyahel
0.62
Nyva Vinnytsya
1.46

finishing

Zvyahel+0.00on par
Nyva Vinnytsya+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvyahel ↓

Nyva Vinnytsya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zvyahel or draw
77%
Zvyahel or Nyva Vinnytsya
75%
Draw or Nyva Vinnytsya
48%

Winning margin

Zvyahel wins by 2+
28%
Nyva Vinnytsya wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zvyahel 1+ goals
80%
Zvyahel 2+ goals
48%
Zvyahel 3+ goals
22%
Nyva Vinnytsya 1+ goals
62%
Nyva Vinnytsya 2+ goals
25%
Nyva Vinnytsya 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zvyahel (draw refunded)
70%
Nyva Vinnytsya (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvyahel at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.62 · 21 matches

Nyva Vinnytsya away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.46 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvyahel attack 1.76 + Nyva Vinnytsya defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.61

Nyva Vinnytsya attack 1.32 + Zvyahel defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zvyahel scores more
52%
level
25%
Nyva Vinnytsya scores more
23%

Zvyahel at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zvyahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvyahel vs Nyva Vinnytsya

Zvyahel beat Nyva Vinnytsya 1-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Avanhard in Zviahel.