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Nyva Vinnytsya vs Zvyahel — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Nyva Vinnytsya
Nyva Vinnytsya
FT
4 – 7
HT: 1 – 4
Zvyahel
Zvyahel
8/6/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 1Tsentralnyi miskyi stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Nyva Vinnytsya26%
×Draw23%
Zvyahel52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyva Vinnytsya
1.24
Zvyahel
1.85

Zvyahel creates 49% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 22 away

creates per match

Nyva Vinnytsya
1.53
Zvyahel
2.55

allows per match

Nyva Vinnytsya
1.16
Zvyahel
0.95

finishing

Nyva Vinnytsya+0.00on par
Zvyahel+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Vinnytsya ↓

Zvyahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Nyva Vinnytsya or draw
48%
Nyva Vinnytsya or Zvyahel
77%
Draw or Zvyahel
74%

Winning margin

Nyva Vinnytsya wins by 2+
10%
Zvyahel wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Nyva Vinnytsya 1+ goals
71%
Nyva Vinnytsya 2+ goals
35%
Nyva Vinnytsya 3+ goals
13%
Zvyahel 1+ goals
84%
Zvyahel 2+ goals
55%
Zvyahel 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Nyva Vinnytsya (draw refunded)
33%
Zvyahel (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Vinnytsya at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.16 · 76 matches

Zvyahel away — creates 2.55, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Vinnytsya attack 1.53 + Zvyahel defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.24

Zvyahel attack 2.55 + Nyva Vinnytsya defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Nyva Vinnytsya scores more
26%
level
23%
Zvyahel scores more
52%

Zvyahel at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zvyahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Nyva Vinnytsya 4–7 Zvyahel

Zvyahel beat Nyva Vinnytsya 7-4 in Druha Liga - Group A on August 6, 2023.

The match was played at Tsentralnyi miskyi stadion in Vinnytsia.