Zvyahel 0–1 Nyva Buzova: Result & Stats

Zvyahel

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nyva Buzova

9/24/2022

Druha Liga - Group A · Round 4Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Zvyahel34%

×Draw29%

Nyva Buzova37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZvyahelExpected goals in this matchNyva Buzova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.13

Zvyahel

1.07

Nyva Buzova

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 8 away

1.76

creates per match

1.63

0.62

allows per match

0.38

creates per match

Zvyahel

1.76

Nyva Buzova

1.63

allows per match

Zvyahel

0.62

Nyva Buzova

0.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvyahel+0.00on par

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvyahel ↓

Nyva Buzova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Zvyahel or draw

63%

Zvyahel or Nyva Buzova

71%

Draw or Nyva Buzova

66%

Winning margin

Zvyahel wins by 2+

13%

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Zvyahel 1+ goals

66%

Zvyahel 2+ goals

29%

Zvyahel 3+ goals

9%

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals

68%

Nyva Buzova 2+ goals

31%

Nyva Buzova 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Zvyahel (draw refunded)

48%

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvyahel at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.62 · 21 matches

Nyva Buzova away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvyahel attack 1.76 + Nyva Buzova defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 1.07

Nyva Buzova attack 1.63 + Zvyahel defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zvyahel scores more

34%

level

29%

Nyva Buzova scores more

37%

Nyva Buzova at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nyva Buzova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff