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Nyva Buzova vs Zvyahel — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Nyva Buzova
Nyva Buzova
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Zvyahel
Zvyahel
4/22/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 13Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Nyva Buzova43%
×Draw23%
Zvyahel34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyva Buzova
1.75
Zvyahel
1.55

Nyva Buzova creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 22 away

creates per match

Nyva Buzova
2.56
Zvyahel
2.55

allows per match

Nyva Buzova
0.56
Zvyahel
0.95

finishing

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par
Zvyahel+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Buzova ↓

Zvyahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Nyva Buzova or draw
66%
Nyva Buzova or Zvyahel
77%
Draw or Zvyahel
57%

Winning margin

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+
22%
Zvyahel wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals
83%
Nyva Buzova 2+ goals
52%
Nyva Buzova 3+ goals
25%
Zvyahel 1+ goals
79%
Zvyahel 2+ goals
46%
Zvyahel 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)
55%
Zvyahel (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Buzova at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Zvyahel away — creates 2.55, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Buzova attack 2.56 + Zvyahel defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.75

Zvyahel attack 2.55 + Nyva Buzova defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nyva Buzova scores more
43%
level
23%
Zvyahel scores more
34%

Nyva Buzova at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nyva Buzova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Nyva Buzova 1–1 Zvyahel

Nyva Buzova and Zvyahel drew 1-1 in Druha Liga - Group A on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Yuvilejnyj in Bucha.