Zvyahel 4–0 Kremin' II: Result & Stats

Zvyahel

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kremin' II

9/17/2022

Druha Liga - Group A · Round 3Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Zvyahel80%

×Draw14%

Kremin' II6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZvyahelExpected goals in this matchKremin' II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

0.47

Zvyahel

2.40

Kremin' II

0.47

Zvyahel creates 411% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

1.76

creates per match

0.33

0.62

allows per match

3.05

creates per match

Zvyahel

1.76

Kremin' II

0.33

allows per match

Zvyahel

0.62

Kremin' II

3.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvyahel+0.00on par

Kremin' II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvyahel ↓

Kremin' II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Zvyahel or draw

94%

Zvyahel or Kremin' II

86%

Draw or Kremin' II

20%

Winning margin

Zvyahel wins by 2+

57%

Kremin' II wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Zvyahel 1+ goals

91%

Zvyahel 2+ goals

69%

Zvyahel 3+ goals

42%

Kremin' II 1+ goals

37%

Kremin' II 2+ goals

8%

Kremin' II 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Zvyahel (draw refunded)

93%

Kremin' II (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvyahel at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.62 · 21 matches

Kremin' II away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvyahel attack 1.76 + Kremin' II defence 3.05 → ÷2 → 2.40

Kremin' II attack 0.33 + Zvyahel defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Zvyahel scores more

80%

level

14%

Kremin' II scores more

6%

Zvyahel at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Zvyahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff