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Kremin' II vs Zvyahel — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Kremin' II
Kremin' II
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 2
Zvyahel
Zvyahel
9/3/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 5Kremin'-Arena im. Olega Babaeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kremin' II10%
×Draw17%
Zvyahel72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kremin' II
0.73
Zvyahel
2.29

Zvyahel creates 214% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

creates per match

Kremin' II
0.52
Zvyahel
2.55

allows per match

Kremin' II
2.04
Zvyahel
0.95

finishing

Kremin' II+0.00on par
Zvyahel+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kremin' II ↓

Zvyahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–213%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kremin' II or draw
28%
Kremin' II or Zvyahel
83%
Draw or Zvyahel
90%

Winning margin

Kremin' II wins by 2+
3%
Zvyahel wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Kremin' II 1+ goals
52%
Kremin' II 2+ goals
17%
Kremin' II 3+ goals
4%
Zvyahel 1+ goals
90%
Zvyahel 2+ goals
66%
Zvyahel 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Kremin' II (draw refunded)
13%
Zvyahel (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kremin' II at home — creates 0.52, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

Zvyahel away — creates 2.55, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kremin' II attack 0.52 + Zvyahel defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.73

Zvyahel attack 2.55 + Kremin' II defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Kremin' II scores more
10%
level
17%
Zvyahel scores more
72%

Zvyahel at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Zvyahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kremin' II vs Zvyahel

Zvyahel beat Kremin' II 7-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Kremin'-Arena im. Olega Babaeva in Kremenchuk.