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Zvijezda Gradačac vs Tuzla City — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tuzla City
Tuzla City
11/2/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 12Bet Ole Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Zvijezda Gradačac68%
×Draw20%
Tuzla City13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvijezda Gradačac
2.08
Tuzla City
0.77

Zvijezda Gradačac creates 170% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 27 away

creates per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.96
Tuzla City
0.48

allows per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.06
Tuzla City
2.19

finishing

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par
Tuzla City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda Gradačac ↓

Tuzla City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zvijezda Gradačac or draw
87%
Zvijezda Gradačac or Tuzla City
80%
Draw or Tuzla City
32%

Winning margin

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
43%
Tuzla City wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
87%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
61%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
34%
Tuzla City 1+ goals
54%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
18%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
84%
Tuzla City (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda Gradačac at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

Tuzla City away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.96 + Tuzla City defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.08

Tuzla City attack 0.48 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
68%
level
20%
Tuzla City scores more
13%

Zvijezda Gradačac at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Zvijezda Gradačac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvijezda Gradačac vs Tuzla City

Tuzla City beat Zvijezda Gradačac 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Bet Ole Arena in Gradačac.