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Tuzla City vs Zvijezda Gradačac — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Tuzla City
Tuzla City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
5/21/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 27Stadion BARE

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Tuzla City48%
×Draw25%
Zvijezda Gradačac27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuzla City
1.56
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.10

Tuzla City creates 42% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 82 away

creates per match

Tuzla City
1.48
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.02

allows per match

Tuzla City
1.19
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.65

finishing

Tuzla City+0.00on par
Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuzla City ↓

Zvijezda Gradačac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tuzla City or draw
73%
Tuzla City or Zvijezda Gradačac
75%
Draw or Zvijezda Gradačac
52%

Winning margin

Tuzla City wins by 2+
25%
Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tuzla City 1+ goals
79%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
46%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
21%
Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
67%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
30%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tuzla City (draw refunded)
64%
Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuzla City at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Zvijezda Gradačac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.65 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuzla City attack 1.48 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.56

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.02 + Tuzla City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tuzla City scores more
48%
level
25%
Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
27%

Tuzla City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tuzla City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Tuzla City 2–1 Zvijezda Gradačac

Tuzla City beat Zvijezda Gradačac 2-1 in 1st League - FBiH on May 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion BARE in Simin Han.