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Zvijezda Gradačac vs Stupčanica Olovo — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Stupčanica Olovo
Stupčanica Olovo
5/13/20231st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 26Stadion Banja Ilidža

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Zvijezda Gradačac45%
×Draw26%
Stupčanica Olovo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.49
Stupčanica Olovo
1.15

Zvijezda Gradačac creates 30% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 57 away

creates per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.96
Stupčanica Olovo
1.23

allows per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.06
Stupčanica Olovo
1.02

finishing

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par
Stupčanica Olovo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda Gradačac ↓

Stupčanica Olovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zvijezda Gradačac or draw
71%
Zvijezda Gradačac or Stupčanica Olovo
74%
Draw or Stupčanica Olovo
55%

Winning margin

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
22%
Stupčanica Olovo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
77%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
44%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
19%
Stupčanica Olovo 1+ goals
68%
Stupčanica Olovo 2+ goals
32%
Stupčanica Olovo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
61%
Stupčanica Olovo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda Gradačac at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

Stupčanica Olovo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.96 + Stupčanica Olovo defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.49

Stupčanica Olovo attack 1.23 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
45%
level
26%
Stupčanica Olovo scores more
29%

Zvijezda Gradačac at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zvijezda Gradačac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvijezda Gradačac vs Stupčanica Olovo

Stupčanica Olovo beat Zvijezda Gradačac 2-1 in 1st League - FBiH on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Banja Ilidža in Gradačac.