Stupčanica Olovo 2–1 Zvijezda Gradačac

Stupčanica Olovo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Zvijezda Gradačac

6/1/2025

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 29Gradski stadion Olovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Stupčanica Olovo59%

×Draw22%

Zvijezda Gradačac18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stupčanica OlovoExpected goals in this matchZvijezda Gradačac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.94

Stupčanica Olovo

1.88

Zvijezda Gradačac

0.94

Stupčanica Olovo creates 100% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 82 away

2.11

creates per match

1.02

0.86

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Stupčanica Olovo

2.11

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.02

allows per match

Stupčanica Olovo

0.86

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stupčanica Olovo+0.00on par

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stupčanica Olovo ↓

Zvijezda Gradačac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Stupčanica Olovo or draw

82%

Stupčanica Olovo or Zvijezda Gradačac

78%

Draw or Zvijezda Gradačac

41%

Winning margin

Stupčanica Olovo wins by 2+

35%

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Stupčanica Olovo 1+ goals

85%

Stupčanica Olovo 2+ goals

56%

Stupčanica Olovo 3+ goals

29%

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals

61%

Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals

24%

Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Stupčanica Olovo (draw refunded)

76%

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stupčanica Olovo at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

Zvijezda Gradačac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.65 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stupčanica Olovo attack 2.11 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.88

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.02 + Stupčanica Olovo defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Stupčanica Olovo scores more

59%

level

22%

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more

18%

Stupčanica Olovo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Stupčanica Olovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff