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Zvijezda Gradačac vs Sloboda Tuzla — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
FT
0 – 1
Sloboda Tuzla
Sloboda Tuzla
9/10/20231st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 5Stadion Banja Ilidža

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Zvijezda Gradačac46%
×Draw26%
Sloboda Tuzla27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.46
Sloboda Tuzla
1.06

Zvijezda Gradačac creates 38% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 28 away

creates per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.96
Sloboda Tuzla
1.07

allows per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.06
Sloboda Tuzla
0.96

finishing

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par
Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda Gradačac ↓

Sloboda Tuzla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zvijezda Gradačac or draw
73%
Zvijezda Gradačac or Sloboda Tuzla
74%
Draw or Sloboda Tuzla
54%

Winning margin

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
23%
Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
77%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
43%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
18%
Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals
65%
Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals
29%
Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
63%
Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda Gradačac at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

Sloboda Tuzla away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.96 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.07 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
46%
level
26%
Sloboda Tuzla scores more
27%

Zvijezda Gradačac at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zvijezda Gradačac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvijezda Gradačac vs Sloboda Tuzla

Sloboda Tuzla beat Zvijezda Gradačac 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Banja Ilidža in Gradačac.