Sloboda Tuzla 1–0 Zvijezda Gradačac: Result & Stats

Sloboda Tuzla

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zvijezda Gradačac

4/7/2024

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 20Stadion Tušanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sloboda Tuzla58%

×Draw23%

Zvijezda Gradačac18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloboda TuzlaExpected goals in this matchZvijezda Gradačac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.86

Sloboda Tuzla

1.75

Zvijezda Gradačac

0.86

Sloboda Tuzla creates 103% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 82 away

1.86

creates per match

1.02

0.71

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Sloboda Tuzla

1.86

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.02

allows per match

Sloboda Tuzla

0.71

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Tuzla ↓

Zvijezda Gradačac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sloboda Tuzla or draw

82%

Sloboda Tuzla or Zvijezda Gradačac

77%

Draw or Zvijezda Gradačac

42%

Winning margin

Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+

33%

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals

83%

Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals

52%

Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals

25%

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals

58%

Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals

21%

Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)

76%

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Tuzla at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

Zvijezda Gradačac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.65 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.86 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.75

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.02 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sloboda Tuzla scores more

58%

level

23%

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more

18%

Sloboda Tuzla at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sloboda Tuzla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff