Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zvijezda Gradačac vs Radnički Lukavac — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Radnički Lukavac
Radnički Lukavac
5/3/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 24Bet Ole Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Zvijezda Gradačac63%
×Draw19%
Radnički Lukavac18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvijezda Gradačac
2.26
Radnički Lukavac
1.13

Zvijezda Gradačac creates 100% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 30 away

creates per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.96
Radnički Lukavac
1.20

allows per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.06
Radnički Lukavac
2.57

finishing

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par
Radnički Lukavac+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda Gradačac ↓

Radnički Lukavac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Zvijezda Gradačac or draw
82%
Zvijezda Gradačac or Radnički Lukavac
81%
Draw or Radnički Lukavac
37%

Winning margin

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
40%
Radnički Lukavac wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
89%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
66%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
39%
Radnički Lukavac 1+ goals
68%
Radnički Lukavac 2+ goals
31%
Radnički Lukavac 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
78%
Radnički Lukavac (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda Gradačac at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

Radnički Lukavac away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.96 + Radnički Lukavac defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.26

Radnički Lukavac attack 1.20 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
63%
level
19%
Radnički Lukavac scores more
18%

Zvijezda Gradačac at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Zvijezda Gradačac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvijezda Gradačac vs Radnički Lukavac

Zvijezda Gradačac beat Radnički Lukavac 5-0 in 1st League - FBiH on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Bet Ole Arena in Gradačac.