Radnički Lukavac 2–2 Zvijezda Gradačac

Radnički Lukavac

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Zvijezda Gradačac

11/5/2022

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 13Stadion Josik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Radnički Lukavac29%

×Draw25%

Zvijezda Gradačac47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički LukavacExpected goals in this matchZvijezda Gradačac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.60

Radnički Lukavac

1.20

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.60

Zvijezda Gradačac creates 33% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 82 away

0.75

creates per match

1.02

2.18

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Radnički Lukavac

0.75

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.02

allows per match

Radnički Lukavac

2.18

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Lukavac+0.00on par

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Lukavac ↓

Zvijezda Gradačac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Radnički Lukavac or draw

53%

Radnički Lukavac or Zvijezda Gradačac

75%

Draw or Zvijezda Gradačac

71%

Winning margin

Radnički Lukavac wins by 2+

12%

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Radnički Lukavac 1+ goals

70%

Radnički Lukavac 2+ goals

34%

Radnički Lukavac 3+ goals

12%

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals

80%

Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals

47%

Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Radnički Lukavac (draw refunded)

38%

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Lukavac at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.18 · 28 matches

Zvijezda Gradačac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.65 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Lukavac attack 0.75 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.20

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.02 + Radnički Lukavac defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Radnički Lukavac scores more

29%

level

25%

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more

47%

Zvijezda Gradačac at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Zvijezda Gradačac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff