Zvijezda Gradačac 0–1 Orašje: Result & Stats

Zvijezda Gradačac

FT

0 – 1

Orašje

8/8/2020

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 1Stadion Banja Ilidža

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Zvijezda Gradačac61%

×Draw21%

Orašje18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zvijezda GradačacExpected goals in this matchOrašje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.01

Zvijezda Gradačac

2.06

Orašje

1.01

Zvijezda Gradačac creates 104% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 46 away

1.96

creates per match

0.96

1.06

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.96

Orašje

0.96

allows per match

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.06

Orašje

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par

Orašje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda Gradačac ↓

Orašje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Zvijezda Gradačac or draw

82%

Zvijezda Gradačac or Orašje

79%

Draw or Orašje

39%

Winning margin

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+

38%

Orašje wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals

87%

Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals

61%

Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals

34%

Orašje 1+ goals

64%

Orašje 2+ goals

27%

Orašje 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)

77%

Orašje (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda Gradačac at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

Orašje away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.96 + Orašje defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.06

Orašje attack 0.96 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more

61%

level

21%

Orašje scores more

18%

Zvijezda Gradačac at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Zvijezda Gradačac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff