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Orašje vs Zvijezda Gradačac — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Orašje
Orašje
FT
2 – 1
Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
3/6/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 16Novi Stadion Orašje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Orašje52%
×Draw24%
Zvijezda Gradačac24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orašje
1.71
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.09

Orašje creates 57% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 82 away

creates per match

Orašje
1.78
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.02

allows per match

Orašje
1.16
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.65

finishing

Orašje+0.00on par
Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orašje ↓

Zvijezda Gradačac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Orašje or draw
76%
Orašje or Zvijezda Gradačac
76%
Draw or Zvijezda Gradačac
48%

Winning margin

Orašje wins by 2+
28%
Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Orašje 1+ goals
82%
Orašje 2+ goals
51%
Orašje 3+ goals
24%
Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
66%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
30%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Orašje (draw refunded)
68%
Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orašje at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

Zvijezda Gradačac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.65 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orašje attack 1.78 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.71

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.02 + Orašje defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Orašje scores more
52%
level
24%
Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
24%

Orašje at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Orašje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Orašje 2–1 Zvijezda Gradačac

Orašje beat Zvijezda Gradačac 2-1 in 1st League - FBiH on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Novi Stadion Orašje in Orašje.