Zvijezda Gradačac 4–0 Mladost Doboj Kakanj

Zvijezda Gradačac

FT

4 – 0

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

11/12/2022

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 14Stadion Banja Ilidža

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Zvijezda Gradačac64%

×Draw20%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zvijezda GradačacExpected goals in this matchMladost Doboj Kakanj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.90

Zvijezda Gradačac

2.08

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

0.90

Zvijezda Gradačac creates 131% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 45 away

1.96

creates per match

0.73

1.06

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.96

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

0.73

allows per match

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.06

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par

Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda Gradačac ↓

Mladost Doboj Kakanj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Zvijezda Gradačac or draw

85%

Zvijezda Gradačac or Mladost Doboj Kakanj

80%

Draw or Mladost Doboj Kakanj

36%

Winning margin

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+

40%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals

87%

Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals

61%

Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals

34%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals

59%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals

23%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)

81%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda Gradačac at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.96 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.08

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 0.73 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more

64%

level

20%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more

15%

Zvijezda Gradačac at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Zvijezda Gradačac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff