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Mladost Doboj Kakanj vs Zvijezda Gradačac — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
FT
4 – 3
Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
5/27/20231st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 29MGM Farm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj44%
×Draw25%
Zvijezda Gradačac31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.54
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.27

Mladost Doboj Kakanj creates 21% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 82 away

creates per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.44
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.02

allows per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.51
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.65

finishing

Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par
Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Doboj Kakanj ↓

Zvijezda Gradačac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mladost Doboj Kakanj or draw
69%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj or Zvijezda Gradačac
75%
Draw or Zvijezda Gradačac
56%

Winning margin

Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+
22%
Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals
79%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals
45%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals
20%
Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
72%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
36%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)
58%
Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

Zvijezda Gradačac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.65 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 1.44 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.54

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.02 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more
44%
level
25%
Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
31%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mladost Doboj Kakanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Doboj Kakanj vs Zvijezda Gradačac

Mladost Doboj Kakanj beat Zvijezda Gradačac 4-3 in 1st League - FBiH on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at MGM Farm Arena in Kakanj.