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Zvijezda Gradačac vs Metalleghe-BSI Jajce — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
FT
5 – 0
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
8/24/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 3Stadion Banja Ilidža

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Zvijezda Gradačac66%
×Draw19%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvijezda Gradačac
2.17
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
0.91

Zvijezda Gradačac creates 138% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 8 away

creates per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.96
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
0.75

allows per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.06
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
2.38

finishing

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda Gradačac ↓

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zvijezda Gradačac or draw
85%
Zvijezda Gradačac or Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
81%
Draw or Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
34%

Winning margin

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
42%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
89%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
64%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
36%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 1+ goals
60%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 2+ goals
23%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
82%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda Gradačac at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.96 + Metalleghe-BSI Jajce defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.17

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce attack 0.75 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
66%
level
19%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce scores more
15%

Zvijezda Gradačac at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Zvijezda Gradačac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvijezda Gradačac vs Metalleghe-BSI Jajce

Zvijezda Gradačac beat Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 5-0 in 1st League - FBiH on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Banja Ilidža in Gradačac.