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Metalleghe-BSI Jajce vs Zvijezda Gradačac — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
CANC
00:00
Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
3/21/20201st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 18Stadion Mračaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce59%
×Draw22%
Zvijezda Gradačac19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
1.89
Zvijezda Gradačac
0.95

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce creates 99% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 82 away

creates per match

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
2.13
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.02

allows per match

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
0.88
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.65

finishing

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce+0.00on par
Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce ↓

Zvijezda Gradačac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce or draw
81%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce or Zvijezda Gradačac
78%
Draw or Zvijezda Gradačac
41%

Winning margin

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce wins by 2+
35%
Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 1+ goals
85%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 2+ goals
56%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 3+ goals
29%
Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
61%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
25%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce (draw refunded)
76%
Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Zvijezda Gradačac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.65 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce attack 2.13 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.89

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.02 + Metalleghe-BSI Jajce defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce scores more
59%
level
22%
Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
19%

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Metalleghe-BSI Jajce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce face Zvijezda Gradačac (1st League - FBiH)

1st League - FBiH returns with Metalleghe-BSI Jajce hosting Zvijezda Gradačac. Match starts March 21, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce host Zvijezda Gradačac at Stadion Mračaj.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.