Zvijezda Gradačac 0–2 GOŠK Gabela: Result & Stats

Zvijezda Gradačac

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

GOŠK Gabela

8/27/2022

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 3Stadion Banja Ilidža

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Zvijezda Gradačac45%

×Draw25%

GOŠK Gabela30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zvijezda GradačacExpected goals in this matchGOŠK Gabela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.18

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.52

GOŠK Gabela

1.18

Zvijezda Gradačac creates 29% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 66 away

1.96

creates per match

1.29

1.06

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.96

GOŠK Gabela

1.29

allows per match

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.06

GOŠK Gabela

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par

GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda Gradačac ↓

GOŠK Gabela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Zvijezda Gradačac or draw

70%

Zvijezda Gradačac or GOŠK Gabela

75%

Draw or GOŠK Gabela

55%

Winning margin

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+

22%

GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals

78%

Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals

45%

Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals

20%

GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals

69%

GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals

33%

GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)

60%

GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda Gradačac at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

GOŠK Gabela away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.08 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.96 + GOŠK Gabela defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.52

GOŠK Gabela attack 1.29 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more

45%

level

25%

GOŠK Gabela scores more

30%

Zvijezda Gradačac at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zvijezda Gradačac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff